Statistical analysis of forecasting covid
Sales and demand forecasters have a variety of techniques at their disposal to predict the future. The forecasts using the x-11 technique were based on statistical methods alone, and did not consider any special information. It is usually difficult to make projections from raw data since the rates and trends are not immediately obvious; they are mixed up with seasonal variations, for example, and perhaps distorted by such factors as the effects of a large sales promotion campaign. As the chart shows, causal models are by far the best for predicting turning points and preparing long-range forecasts. It may be impossible for the company to obtain good information about what is taking place at points further along the flow system (as in the upper segment of exhibit ii), and, in consequence, the forecaster will necessarily be using a different genre of forecasting from what is used for a consumer product. This suggested to us that a better job of forecasting could be done by combining spec...